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Selecting a game is a fascinating subject of poker, and a critical skill for anyone looking to improve their win rate at the poker table. Simply put, it is the ability to discern which games are the most profitable.
The more money that goes in on the opening round, the larger the role that luck plays in a player’s results. Although this concept is often misunderstood by experienced players, it is critical that you understand the implications of this statement, since it’s the dynamic that is often most responsible for a player’s results.
Let us say we’re playing 3-6 holdem. It’s a typical 3-6 game in every respect, except that everyone is forced to ante $20 dollars before the hands are dealt. Thus, the pot contains one, one dollar blind, one three dollar blind, and $200 in antes before the deal. As it turns out, poker skill would have almost no bearing at all on the players' results. Since the pot is already so big, it would be correct to play every hand before the flop. As we all know, ‘any two cards can win’ in holdem, and even a hand like 8 2 offsuit can occasionally drag a monster pot. Since the pot is guaranteed to be at least $204, paying a measly three bucks to take a look at the flop with 8 2 offsuit would be no-brainer.
This means, of course, that hand selection skills go completely out the window. And how about post-flop play? Again, it would become correct to chase just about any goofy draw to the river, since the pay off for hitting it would be so enormous. Thus, superior post-flop skills are also consigned to the garbage heap. In short, poker skill would not be at all important in a game like this. You would simply be dealt you hand, and dutifully go to the river on almost every deal. In the long run you would win about 10 percent of the hands dealt (again, assuming a 10 player game) just like everyone else.
If it is going to cost you a bundle to see every flop, everyone is going to be getting the proper odds to continue on with just about every ridiculous draw imaginable. In a game like this, your superior post flop play does not do much to inform your results, since nobody is making a mistake by chasing with inferior hands. You have A K, and the flop comes A 9 4. You are correct to keep betting, but the guy with 4 2 offsuit is also correct to be chasing, since all the pre-flop raising has built such a massive pot. Now you will eventually get the money in a game with tons of pre-flop raising, since A K will beat 4 2 a fair percentage of the time. But it is going to take a long time for your superior playing skills to reflect in your results, since your opponents are only making a mistake on one betting round and not on subsequent rounds.
What does all this mean to you? In a nutshell, it means you should be looking for games that have less pre-flop raising. This usually leads you to games that have an average pot size somewhere around 6 to 7 big bets. Obviously you can usually find a game where the average pot size is bigger than this. And, usually you will see a long wait list for these games. But the fact that the games have bigger pots does not mean they are the most profitable. In fact, what it likely means is that ‘luck’ is going to play a greater role in the results than the winning player would like to see.
After all, the games with the huge pots are more fun to play in. But if you are in it for the money, stick with the games that play smaller. Besides, whatever enjoyment you lose from not playing in monster pots is more than made up for in your ability to really punish that obnoxious guy who keeps limping in with 7 4 offsuit.
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